Lady Griz and Vikings in unexpected positions
1/27/2012 12:00:00 AM | Women's Basketball
Jan. 27, 2012
Portland State and Montana have represented the Big Sky Conference at the last four NCAA tournaments, and the Vikings and Lady Griz were picked first and second in this season's preseason coaches' poll.
It's surprising, then, that the two teams will meet Saturday at 2 p.m. at Dahlberg Arena sitting in fourth (UM) and sixth (PSU) place as the Big Sky schedule reaches its midpoint and soon flips over to the critical month of February.
The Lady Griz (11-9, 4-3 BSC) and Vikings (11-8, 3-4 BSC) have gone 1-5 over their last six games at a point in the season when at least one of them was expected to be taking control of the conference race.
Instead that role has been assumed by Idaho State (15-5, 7-0 BSC), which came away with a surprising 64-50 win at Northern Colorado (12-9, 4-4 BSC) Thursday night to complete a season sweep of the Bears. The win kept the Bengals perfect in league play and two games up in the loss column on Montana State (14-6, 6-2 BSC) and Eastern Washington (12-9, 6-2 BSC).
The most shocking development for Montana and Portland State is that the loser of Saturday's game may need to start worrying more about who's behind it in the league standings than in front.
A loss by the Vikings would be their fourth straight. Coupled with a Sacramento State (8-13, 3-5 BSC) win Saturday evening at Northern Arizona (6-14, 1-7 BSC), PSU could begin the second half of the Big Sky season in seventh place, an uncomfortable position with only the top six teams making the postseason tournament.
A Montana loss would be its third in four games. And with a road trip to Montana State and Idaho State looming next weekend, the Lady Griz would also need to start keeping an eye on the rearview mirror.
So the stakes Saturday are high. They just aren't the stakes anyone was expecting.
The Big Sky at a glance: Idaho State is unbeaten and the surprise team of the first half. Though the Bengals returned five starters this year, they were picked fifth in the preseason coaches' poll. ISU can wrap up a perfect first half with a win Saturday afternoon at Weber State and then look forward to a back half when it has five of eight games at home as it attempts to win its first regular-season title since 2006.
Another key game Saturday afternoon will be Eastern Washington at Montana State. Both teams are tied for second and don't want to lose a third game and possibly drop three back in the loss column of Idaho State. The Eagles beat the Bobcats 79-73 when they met earlier this month in Cheney.
Thursday night recap: Three of the four games were won by the road team and all by at least 10 points. The only team to hold home court was Montana State, which outscored Portland State 42-21 in the second half to pull away for a 70-50 win.
Eastern Washington lost to Montana at Cheney, Wash., earlier this month. Thursday night the Eagles went 7 for 12 from 3-point range and shot 45.3 percent overall in a 67-57 win to exact a small measure of revenge. EWU built an 18-point first-half lead and held off a late Lady Griz rally that cut the lead to four in the game's final minutes.
Idaho State won at Northern Colorado, and Sacramento State picked up an important road win with an 83-68 win at Weber State (2-18, 0-7 BSC). Alle Moreno went 8 for 13 from three and finished with 26 points as the Hornets forced 26 turnovers to keep the Wildcats winless in league play.
Saturday analysis: The good news for the Vikings is that they have the most talented three-guard lineup in the Big Sky Conference. Sophomore Kate Lanz (17.6/g), junior Courtney VanBrocklin (14.5/g) and senior Eryn Jones (13.2/g), the reigning Big Sky Conference MVP, are three of the league's top nine scorers. All measure 5-10 or shorter.
Jones is the most prolific 3-point shooter in the Big Sky at 2.6 makes per game, and she ranks third in the league in assists (4.2/g). Lanz, a transfer from Oregon State, ranks fifth in rebounding (8.1/g), and VanBrocklin is the Big Sky leader in free throw percentage (.926) and second-ranked 3-point shooter (.413).
PSU's losses during its recent three-game skid came against the three teams currently leading the Big Sky, but they came by an alarming total of 43 points. The Vikings were never in the game in their 78-63 loss at Idaho State and got ran off the court the final 10 minutes Thursday night at Bozeman.
The consistent element in those three games was Portland State's inability to defend the interior.
PSU starts a four-guard lineup and does not have a starter that checks in at over 5-11. The Vikings lead the Big Sky in 3-point field goal percentage (.357) and also 3-point defense (.263), hints of a strong perimeter game, but only six-foot senior Shauneice Samms provides much interior presence, and she only plays 16 minutes per game.
Idaho State shot 54.3 percent for the game and scored 38 points in the paint against Portland State, Eastern Washington shot 43.5 percent and totaled 44 points in the paint, Montana State shot 45.0 percent and had 38 points in the paint.
The Vikings' seven opponents during league are shooting 44.0 percent, mainly because they've been able to generate high-percentage shots close to the basket.
Montana coach Robin Selvig is aware of PSU's defensive shortcomings and his team's height advantage in Saturday's game, but, as a coach who most often thinks about the defensive end first, he is mainly concerned about slowing down the Vikings, not outscoring them. After all, Portland State still averages nearly 68 points per game in league on Big Sky-best 42 percent shooting.
PSU has allowed nearly 80 points per game in its four league losses. The Vikings are losing because they are getting outscored, and at just 61.1 points per game in league, Montana's ability to outscore teams is not its strength.
"We need to defend their perimeter kids. That's the key. And they are a good transition team. We've got to stop that," he said Friday morning, distracted while simultaneously reviewing tape of Thursday night's loss to Eastern Washington.
With video of the Lady Griz turning the ball over 11 times in the first half and shooting 30.8 percent when they did get shots playing in the background, it probably wasn't the best setting to inquire about his team's size advantage and how his post players should have a field day inside.
"We've got to take care of the ball and make shots," he said, carrying over Thursday's failure to Saturday's scouting report. "And hopefully we get some inside-outside balance."
Series notes: Montana and Portland State have met 12 times the last four seasons. Twice during the regular season, then at each of the last four Big Sky tournaments. ... Montana leads the all-time series 38-15, but Portland State has won six of the last nine meetings. In six of those nine meetings, the final margin has been 10 points or less. ... The Vikings won five straight against the Lady Griz before Montana won at PSU last March 62-58 in the championship game of the Big Sky tournament.
Could they? Since beginning play in the Mountain West Conference prior to the 1982-83 season and through all its years in the Big Sky Conference, Montana has never lost a regular-season home game to the same opponent three consecutive seasons. Weber State won at Dahlberg Arena in 2002 and '03 and Northern Arizona pulled off the double in 2005 and '06. Neither could complete the hat trick.
Portland State won at Dahlberg Arena 72-60 in 2010 and 70-65 last season. Will the Vikings make history Saturday?
You don't want it to come down to this: Portland State ranks fourth nationally in team free throw percentage at 80.8 percent.
Upcoming: Montana will play at Montana State on Saturday, Feb. 4, then continue on to play at Idaho State on Monday, Feb. 6.
