Hornets arrive as championship month begins

The Montana softball team will wrap up its regular season -- and welcome the start of championship month -- this weekend when it hosts Sacramento State in a three-game series at Grizzly Softball Field.

The Grizzlies and Hornets will play a doubleheader on Friday beginning at 3 p.m. and play a single game on Saturday at 1 p.m.

The six-team Big Sky Conference Tournament opens next Thursday at Ogden, Utah.

What's at stake (Montana): Mathematically the possibilities span the spectrum based on what happens in Missoula and around the Big Sky between Friday and Sunday afternoons.

Consider this: Montana could play its way into an all-important bye in next week's tournament, or the Grizzlies could miss the tournament all together.

The only way the former could happen would be if Montana sweeps Sacramento State and a number of other things take place. As for the latter, the Grizzlies would have to lose three times and Idaho State would need to win all three of its games at North Dakota.

The odds would suggest something happening that falls in between those two scenarios. At its most simple, Montana makes the tournament with a single win.

What's at stake (Sacramento State): The Hornets and Weber State are the only two teams that have clinched spots to next week's tournament. The other four spots are up in the air, with five teams still alive to fill out the field. Only Southern Utah has been eliminated at this point.

Sacramento State and Weber State are both 12-6 in league, with the Hornets holding the tiebreaker based on taking two out of three at Ogden in late March.

The Hornets go into this weekend eyeing 1) an outright championship, 2) a shared title and the No. 1 seed or 3) a tournament bye that goes to the top two teams in the final regular-season standings, in that order of importance.

And there is this: This year's regular-season champion hosts next year's tournament. Montana is out of the running for that scenario.

Trending (Montana): The Grizzlies have dropped two of three in their last two series, against Portland State and Northern Colorado, to fall off the first-place pace of Sacramento State and Weber State. Montana goes into this weekend 9-9 in league, 23-26 overall.

Trending (Sacramento State): The Hornets have won five of six to catch Weber State. Sacramento State swept Southern Utah at home two weeks ago, winning three one-run games, then took two of three at home last weekend against North Dakota, holding the Fighting Hawks to four runs in three games.

Series history: Montana has had less success against Sacramento State over the last three years than any other program in the Big Sky. The Grizzlies are just 3-8 against the Hornets. The teams have played three league series and met in a nonconference game in 2016 plus that season's Big Sky tournament.

The teams have played just one previous series in Missoula, with Sac State winning two of three in 2016.

Coverage: All three games this weekend can be viewed at WatchBigSky.com or on Pluto TV. Saturday's game will have additional coverage on SWX.

The week in review:

G1: Northern Colorado 1, Montana 0 (8) -- Valerie Vidal won a pitchers' duel against Colleen Driscoll when Driscoll allowed a walk-off home run with one out in the bottom of the eighth. It was only the third hit allowed in the game by Driscoll. Montana was shut out on four hits.

G2: Northern Colorado 8, Montana 7 (9) -- Tied 5-5 after seven innings, the Grizzlies were primed to pick up the win after scoring twice in the top of the ninth, but the Bears scored three runs on four hits in the bottom half of the inning to walk off with the victory.

G3: Montana 3, Northern Colorado 2 -- Montana scored three times in the top of the third to go up 3-1, and Tristin Achenbach threw 3 1/3 innings of hitless relief to pick up the win as the Grizzlies snapped a three-game losing streak.

Montana notes:

* Montana's last five games have all been one-run decisions. ... The Grizzlies have allowed three or fewer runs in 21 of their last 25 games.

* The Grizzlies are 49-20 all-time at home but have lost both of their Big Sky series this season at Grizzly Softball Field. Weber State won two of three, as did Portland State.

* Friday's 8-7 loss at Northern Colorado was Montana's first (7-1) this season when scoring seven or more runs.

* Morgan Johnson got the start at designated player the final two games at Northern Colorado. In the series opener, she doubled in her at-bat as a pinch hitter, her second career extra-base hit. For the series she went a respectable 2 for 7 (.286).

* Montana and Northern Colorado played three one-run games. How close was it? Northern Colorado batted 20 for 85 (.235), Montana 21 for 90 (.233). The Bears scored 11 runs in three games, the Grizzlies 10.

* Nobody for Montana had more than four hits in the three games at Northern Colorado. Delene Colburn and MaKenna McGill both went 4 for 13 (.308).

* Jessica McAlister had three of Montana's eight RBIs at Northern Colorado, upping her season total to 13, the fourth-best total on the team behind Delene Colburn (38), Ashlyn Lyons (31) and Madison Saacke (20).

Series preview: The last time Montana and Sacramento State played, a doubleheader on April 9 last season on the Hornets' home field, the Grizzlies took a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the seventh of both games.

In the first game, the tying run was at second base with one out. In the second game, the tying run was at third base with one out. The Grizzlies survived both, winning 3-2 twice for the doubleheader sweep.

It was low-scoring softball, tense, with people on the edge of their seats, players, coaches and fans alike. And it's what to expect this weekend when the Big Sky's top two defensive teams match up in Missoula.

Sacramento State, at 2.92, has the league's best team ERA, led by Celina Matthias, who is 17-7 this season, with a 1.96 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 175 1/3 innings pitched. The Hornets back their pitchers with the Big Sky's second-best fielding percentage (.969).

Ranking second in ERA is Montana, at 3.02. The Grizzlies match Matthias's individual brilliance with a deeper staff. Montana's four primary pitchers -- Colleen Driscoll (2.70), Michaela Hood (2.78), Tristin Achenbach (3.38) and Maddy Stensby (3.53) -- all rank in the top 10 in the league in ERA.

And Montana tops the Big Sky in team fielding (.971), so it's unlikely there will be any games this weekend when the score is anything close to 9-8, or what the score was when the teams played for the very first time back in 2015.

"If you look at the statistics, both teams are sitting high in the conference at defending the ball, whether that's pitching the ball or defending it, so you go into the weekend thinking you're probably going to get that type of outcome," said coach Melanie Meuchel.

"Both teams trust what they've done well, so I expect low run production in general. Every run a team can get will matter."

And that's becoming the case in the league in general as April turns to May, as everyone begins exhibiting what Meuchel calls "championship play."

Consider this: On the first weekend of league play, in mid-March, in the 12 games that were played, the winning team scored six or more runs 10 times. Six times the winning team scored more than 10 runs.

In 12 games last weekend, the winning team scored five runs or fewer 10 times. Seven games were one-run decisions, with a pair of 1-0 results and one 2-1 finish.

"I don't have an answer," said Meuchel. "Championship play begins in May, so maybe people are tightening up. I do know we've seen pitchers rise up in programs who maybe haven't always had a dominant pitcher. You're starting to see more of a true ace for everyone."

That would be the case for Northern Colorado's Valerie Vidal, who started twice against Montana last weekend in Greeley. After winning five games last season, she is 16-9 this year, with a 2.74 ERA in 31 appearances, 30 of them starts.

That's not to suggest this weekend will be all pitching and no hitting at Grizzly Softball Field. Five of the Big Sky's top seven hitters, at least in percentage, will be on the field.

Sacramento State holds down the top three spots in the league statistics, with senior second baseman Zamari Hinton batting a Big Sky-best .396. She has 59 hits in 43 games played. Sophomore left fielder Suzy Brookshire is hitting .375, junior right fielder Nene Alas .374.

Brookshire, first-team All-Big Sky last spring as a freshman, leads the Big Sky in home runs with 14 and ranks second with 46 RBIs.

Montana counters with a strong trio of bats at the top of the lineup, with seniors MaKenna McGill, Delene Colburn and Ashlyn Lyons batting 1-2-3. They possess the team's top three batting averages, with Colburn ranking fourth in the Big Sky at .363, Lyons seventh at .353.

Colburn ranks third in home runs (9). Colburn (38) and Lyons (31) rank third and fourth in RBIs.

With so many league teams playing for so much this weekend, all four of the series have something at stake. Idaho State is playing at North Dakota, Northern Colorado is at Weber State and Portland State is at Southern Utah.

North Dakota (8-7) and Portland State (9-8) are percentage points ahead of fifth-place Montana (9-9) in the standings, with Northern Colorado (7-7) making the current tournament cut as well. Idaho State (7-11) remains alive but has the toughest road ahead if it is going to be playing next week in Ogden.

"We should have a fun series because there is a lot to play for, and I think that's the case for every series in the Big Sky," said Meuchel. "It's intense when it comes down to the last weekend, but it's also a lot of fun.

"I'm expecting our players to show up and be ready for every pitch. It's coming to the end. Championship play begins in May."

Upcoming: The three-day crucible in Ogden opens on Thursday.

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Players Mentioned

Tristin Achenbach

Delene Colburn

Colleen Driscoll

Michaela Hood

Morgan Johnson

Ashlyn Lyons

Jessica McAlister

MaKenna McGill

Madison Saacke

Maddy Stensby

University of Montana Athletics