Griz aim to keep rivalry streak alive at home

Saturday, January 21

Missoula, Mont.

7 PM

Montana

Montana State

Tickets

Mack Anderson #23 of the Montana Grizzlies celebrates after getting fouled during the first half against against Idaho State at Dahlberg Arena on January 14, 2023 in Missoula, Montana.

Photo by: Ryan Brennecke/ University of Montana

1/20/2023 10:05:00 AM | Men's Basketball

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By: Montana Sports Information

MONTANA vs. MONTANA STATE
Saturday, Jan. 21 / 7:00 p.m. / Missoula, Mont.
Watch / Live Stats / Tickets

The biggest game of the season has arrived for Montana basketball as they host Montana State in the Brawl of the Wild on Saturday night at 7 p.m. inside Dahlberg Arena. The Bobcats enter as the preseason favorites and defending Big Sky Conference champion, but are coming off a head-scratching loss and entering an arena that has not been kind to them throughout the years.

Montana is also entering the game after a loss on Monday night, falling on the road to Eastern Washington. It was the second time the Grizzlies have played the undefeated Eagles this year, and for the second time they led at halftime and had some chances in the second half but came away disappointed.

Monday's games, the third in five days for both the Griz and Bobcats, should have both teams coming into the rivalry game hungry for redemption. Neither team has lost consecutive games in conference play, as the Grizzlies have rebounded from their previous three losses with statement wins.

There would be no bigger statement than defeating the Bobcats at home, although it has become a regular occurrence in Missoula. Montana have won 11 straight home games in the rivalry, including a late season win last year against an MSU team that entered 13-3 in Big Sky play. It's a game that routinely draws the largest crowd of the season for Montana, and one that they are desperate to win regardless of record.

This year, the record means a little more. Montana have been a good team this season, but a quick check of the standings may dissuade you from holding that opinion. The Griz are 3-4 in Big Sky play, and with just two games remaining before the midway point of the season sit in sixth place in the conference.

But they have held leads at halftime of six of the seven games. They have been tied or ahead of their opponents in the final three minutes of three of the four losses. Then down the stretch, the shots just haven't fallen. It's been frustrating, but also encouraging. The advanced stats say Montana are a top team in the conference. They have the third best scoring margin in the league despite the 3-4 record.

The results are the one thing that is missing, but they have a perfect opportunity to get one against the Bobcats on Saturday. It should be a competitive game. The Grizzlies and Bobcats are the only teams to rank in the top four in the league in both scoring offense and defense. Montana State allow under 62 points per game to league opponents; Montana give up 67.

It also features some of the best players that the league has to offer. Josh Bannan has been an all-around star for the Grizzlies, leading them in all three major statistical categories. Jubrile Belo counters him with size and strength. Missoula fans will likely remember the reigning league MVP, as he scored 21 points and pulled down 16 rebounds in Dahlberg Arena last year.

Aanen Moody and Dischon Thomas have been outside threats for Montana's offense, while Brandon Whitney is the slashing guard that can create space for his teammates. Montana State brings to the game RaeQuan Battle, an athletic guard who averages better than 16 points per game. Darius Brown II runs the floor for Montana state, leading the league in assist/turnover ratio while second in steals.

The stars will be on display inside of Dahlberg Arena as the Grizzlies look to make it a dozen straight at home against their rivals, and 21 out of 23 overall.

SCOUTING MONTANA STATE (12-8, 5-2 Big Sky)

The Bobcats enter the rivalry game in third place in the Big Sky Conference but fresh off a head-scratching loss. Montana State played Monday night against Idaho, a team they defeated by 14 at home in the conference opener. The Vandals went into the matchup 0-5, but led the entire way for a 74-70 win.
Montana State's only other loss came to undefeated Eastern Washington. After the Eagles overcame a seven-point deficit to win in Missoula, they went down I-90 and beat the Bobcats 70-67.
Defense has been the strength of the Bobcats this season. They have the best scoring defense in the Big Sky, and have held four of their seven Big Sky opponents under 60 points. In seven conference games, they are allowing opponents just 61.7 points and have the best scoring margin at 10.1 points per game.
Opponents have struggled to shoot against the Bobcats, as their 40.8 opponent field goal percentage is tops in the Big Sky. They have also held opponents to just a tick over 30 percent from three-point range, while forcing the most turnovers in the Big Sky.
The Bobcats score 71.9 points per game, the third best offense in the league so far. They have shot 47.5 percent from the floor (2^nd in the Big Sky) and commit the third fewest turnovers of any conference team.
Before the loss to Idaho, Montana State had won four consecutive games, all by double-digits.
It's been a balanced effort from the Bobcats so far this season. They don't have a single player averaging 30 minutes per game and have nine players averaging at least 15 minutes.
Jubrile Belo was named the 2022 Big Sky MVP and Defensive Player of the Year, and was named the preseason conference MVP again this season. Belo is averaging 13.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game this season.
Belo had a double-double in both rivalry games last season, including a 21-point, 16-rebound performance in a loss in Missoula. Coming into this Saturday, he has a double-double in consecutive games.
RaeQuan Battle leads the team in scoring, averaging 16.2 points per game. He has been in double-figures in six of the seven conference games this season, and scored 30 points in the non-conference against North Dakota.
Darius Brown II rounds out a formidable trio for the Bobcats. Brown II averages 13.6 points per game in conference play and is fourth in the league in assists with 4.3 per game. His assist/turnover ratio is the second best at 3.8.
Defensively speaking, Belo and Brown II lead the conference in blocks and steals, respectively. Belo averages 1.3 blocks and Brown II averages 2.6 steals.

BRAWL OF THE WILD HISTORY

This will be the 304^th all-time meeting between the Grizzlies and the Bobcats. It is the fifth-most played rivalry game in college basketball history. Oregon/Oregon State; Oregon/Washington; Oregon State/Washington; and Oregon State/Washington State are the only games to have been played more times.
Montana has the 154-149 advantage in the all-time series, and have been dominant in the series in the past decade-plus. The Grizzlies have won 20 of the previous 22 meetings between the two.
At home, the Griz haven't lost in the rivalry game since the 2010 season, winning 11 consecutive against the Bobcats inside of Dahlberg Arena. They have lost just three regular season home games against Montana State since the year 2000.
The first meeting between the schools came all the way back in 1902. Montana State won the first nine in the series and at one point held a nearly 30 game advantage, but Montana took its first lead in series history in 2018 and have only extended it since.
Travis DeCuire is 19-3 against Montana State. He went 6-2 against the Bobcats as a player and is 12-2 so far as a coach. Montana State head coach Danny Sprinkle is also well educated in the history of the rivalry, as he played in Bozeman from 1995-99.

MONTANA'S RECENT FORM
The Grizzlies have struggled to get much momentum rolling early in the conference season. The good? Montana have not lost consecutive games against league opposition. The not-so-good? They also don't have consecutive wins in a season that has been confounding.

The Grizzlies are coming off a loss to Eastern Washington and hoping that the trend will hold true against their rivals. In the game against the Eagles, Montana led for over 19 minutes of the contest. They had a halftime advantage, but Eastern Washington put together an impressive second half and closed the game on a 7-0 run to get the win.

PUT THE BALL IN THE BASKET
It's a fairly straightforward statistic, but a telling one all the same. Montana is 0-9 this season when shooting a worse field-goal percentage than its opponent, and 9-1 when the Grizzlies shoot better. It makes everything feel pretty simple when looking at the grand scheme of the schedule.

Montana has four wins when shooting better than 50 percent and four wins when shooting between 40 and 45 percent. It seems to matter less what the Grizzlies have done offensively and more what they have forced their opponents into. They are 6-2 when limited the opponent under 40 percent shooting, a difficult number to reach but one that usually means success for Montana.

BATTLE OF THE BOARDS
In the same vein of, "Doesn't that seem obvious so why are you telling us?" as the above fact, Montana is also nearly perfect when they win the rebounding battle. They are 8-1 in games when they finish with more rebounds and 0-7 in games where the opponent brings down the lion's share of boards. Toss in a 1-2 record in splits, and it shows how important the glass has been to Montana.

THE FINAL KEY FOR MONTANA
The third in the series of keys to the game for Montana is assists. Again, the Griz have a lopsided record in terms of games when they record more assists than their opponent (7-2) as opposed to games when the opponent wins that category (2-8).

When you combine the three above factors of efficient shooting, physical rebounding and good distribution of the ball, it usually spells success for Montana. DeCuire has often talked of the flow that his team get into when playing well, which stems from missed shots and defensive rebounds that turn into transition offense. This creates more assist opportunities and easier shots for the Griz on the other end.

HOLDING THE LEAD
The game against Eastern Washington was the latest example of a worrying trend for Montana. The Grizzlies have led at halftime of six of the seven Big Sky games they have played, but have maintained the lead just three times.

Overall, Montana has led for over 177 minutes of Big Sky basketball out of a possible 280 minutes. They have trailed for just 75 minutes of game time. There has been just one game (the Big Sky opener against Eastern Washington) in which Montana has led for fewer minutes than its opponent. And yet, the Grizzlies enter Saturday with a 3-4 record in the league.

THE ANALYTICS ARE POSITIVE
Montana has had a difficult stretch opening the season in terms of close game losses. It isn't a stretch to say that with a few different bounces Montana could be toward the top of the conference standings, but that's why you play the games.

Still, the Griz believe they are much better than their record indicates. The advanced statistics would agree. Montana is still third in the Big Sky in the Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings, ahead of teams like Sacramento State, Weber State and Idaho State that have better league records.

The same can be said of the NCAA NET Rankings, where Montana again checks in as the No. 3 Big Sky team and at 176 overall. They both agree that the Grizzlies have an efficient offense and a stingy defense to go along with some unfortunate luck.

THE FREE THROW CONUNDRUM
Montana has broken the school record for team free throw percentage in back-to-back seasons. There is plenty of basketball to be played, but the Grizzlies are in a good position to make yet another run at the record. The team is shooting 77.8 percent from the line this year. It is the 14th best percentage in D-1 basketball.

They shot 78.5 in 2021-22, and 78.2 in 2020-21.

The top six scorers for Montana are all over 75 percent from the line, including the entire starting five. Martin Jr. leads at 86.7 percent, followed by Thomas (84.2), Vazquez (84.0), Moody (83.1), Bannan (78.9) and Whitney (76.1).

But somehow Montana has only outshot its opponent in 12 of the 19 games. The Grizzlies opponents are converting at an astonishing 77.2 percent clip. It makes Montana's free throw defense – an uncontrollable figure – 354th in the country out of 363 qualifying teams.

On top of that, Montana allows nearly 22 attempts per game. Combine the high percentage with a large volume, and the Grizzlies allow nearly 17 points per game from the line. They have been outscored by an average of 3.6 points per game. The Griz are 4-1 in the games where they make more free throws, but 5-9 in contests where they make fewer.

BEYOND THE ARC
The numbers have cooled off slightly in recent weeks, but Montana is still among the best in three-point shooting this season on both sides of the ball. The Grizzlies have allowed opponents to shoot just 31.6 percent from the arc while knocking down 35.4 percent. Both numbers are in the top four in the Big Sky and near the top 100 nationally.

The Griz also make nearly eight per game, while limiting opponents to 6.2. The Grizzlies have made more three-pointers than their opponents in 12 of the 19 games this season, but have just a 5-7 record in those games.

GOOD TO BE HOME
Montana have been a much better team inside of Dahlberg Arena this season. In addition to the obvious (a 6-3 record at home vs. a 2-7 record in road games), there are several key figures for the Griz. It starts with the defense. Opponents have shot just 37.2 percent in Missoula this season and average barely over 60 points per game. Compare that to road games, where Montana's opponents have combined to shoot 49.2 percent from the field and average 74.8 points.

Montana have held their opponent under 40 percent from the field in seven of their nine home games. The top seven defensive performances in terms of field goal percentage and points allowed have all come at home.

There are a couple of games against teams currently ranked in the top 10 nationally (No. 6 Gonzaga and No. 8 Xavier) that skew that slightly, but the overall message has been true. Montana's numbers don't change much, regardless of venue. They shoot 44.1 percent in the nine home games and 44.9 percent in the nine road games.

AN EXPERIENCED SQUAD
For the first time in several seasons, Travis DeCuire has a roster full of upperclassmen and experienced players. The Griz currently have four different players with at least 100 D-1 appearances under their belts.

Mack Anderson (127 games played), Aanen Moody (110), Dischon Thomas (109) and Josh Vazquez (109) lead the way in total experience for Montana, while they also have a pair of three-year starters in Brandon Whitney and Josh Bannan that have combined for 147 career starts.

HAVE TO TAKE CARE OF THE BALL
The Grizzlies have been the best in the Big Sky and nearly crack the top 50 in turnovers per game. They haven't committed more than 15 in a single game all season and have eight games this season in which they've committed less than 10.

GRIZ NOTES

Montana have been very good on Saturday's this season with a 5-1 record.
In the first three weeks of the season, Montana have played seven games. Along with Montana State, they share the league lead for games played as there are still four teams with only five games. This week provided some much-needed rest for both sides.
The Grizzlies are fourth in the Big Sky in scoring margin. They have the third best defense in the league (67.1 points per game) and are right in the mix for top three offensively as well with 71.1 points per game. They are currently sixth, but one of four teams averaging 71 points.
Defensively speaking, Montana is coming off perhaps their best performance of the season against Eastern Washington. They held the high-flying Eagles in check, limiting them over 20 points below their season average at 64 points. The Grizzlies have the third-best field goal percentage defense in the Big Sky.
The Griz have held four straight opponents under 45 percent shooting. They have done it in five of seven conference games.
Close games have been few and far between for Montana this year. They are 0-3 in games decided by four points or less. The Griz have an average margin of victory of 13.8 points, but an average margin of defeat of 10.1 points.
The Griz have held a halftime lead in six of seven conference games, and have also held a lead in the final seven minutes of six games.