Griz head west looking to start a winning streak

Montana men's basketball hits the road this week as it passes the midway point of the Big Sky Conference schedule. The Grizzlies take on Sacramento State on Thursday and Portland State on Saturday. Both games will tip-off at 7:00 p.m. local time, 8:00 p.m. MT.

The Grizzlies begin the road trip coming off yet another heartbreaking loss, this time to rival Montana State. The Grizzlies sit at 9-11 on the season and 3-5 in Big Sky play, which puts them seventh in the league standings.

It's been a frustrating start for a team that feels the potential is there to compete for the Big Sky championship. Montana is third in scoring margin in conference play, and also third in the league by most advanced metrics. But they have three losses by fewer than three points, and have already taken on the undefeated league leaders twice.

If Montana were going to start a streak, this weekend seems like the time. They have a chance for a statement win that could generate some momentum against a Sacramento State team that hasn't lost yet at home this season. After that, they head to Portland for a showdown with a Viking team that sits a half-game above them in the league standings.

After this trip, they start the back half of the schedule at home against Northern Colorado – a team they beat on the road already - and a 1-7 Northern Arizona team whose only win came in overtime against the Grizzlies. It seems to be the perfect opportunity to get a winning streak started.

But it will start against two very tough teams, and a pair of opponents that play very contrasting styles. Sacramento State has more size than anyone in the Big Sky, and are the best rebounding team in the league. They will limit Montana's chances with a slow tempo, the 349^th slowest in the NCAA according to kenpom.com.

There won't be much time to adjust before taking on a Portland State team with a near-opposite identity. The Vikings play small and fast, forcing a lot of turnovers and scoring on the break. They rank in the top 25 nationally in fastbreak points, turnovers forced and turnover margin.

It will be a unique challenge for Montana to game plan for both in the same trip. They play similarly to the Hornets, relying on good defense and a controlled tempo for their wins. It will be strength on strength against the Vikings in a test to see which style wins out.

SCOUTING SACRAMENTO STATE (11-9, 4-3 Big Sky)

The Hornets are coming off a disappointing road trip last weekend with a pair of close losses to Idaho State (65-61) and Weber State (50-48), but have been very good this season under first-year head coach David Patrick.
At home, Sacramento State are a perfect 7-0, including a 3-0 mark in Big Sky play.
The Big Sky schedule has been a stressful one so far for Sacramento State. They defeated Portland State by 11 in the league opener, but since then every game has been a single-digit deficit with five games decided by four points or fewer.
Sacramento State's three Big Sky losses have come by a combined nine points. They have a positive 2.1 scoring margin, the fifth-best mark in the Big Sky.
After finishing 11-18 overall last year and 6-14 in Big Sky play, Sacramento State appear poised to greatly exceed both win totals in 2022-23. The Hornets are currently above .500 in league play. They haven't closed a season above .500 since going 13-5 in 2014-15.
They have built the good start with solid defense and size. The Hornets are third in the league in scoring defense, allowing under 66 points per game, and lead the Big Sky in rebounding with nearly 39 per game. They pull down more than five rebounds per game more than third-place Weber State.
The Hornets have struggled at the free throw line this season, shooting just 68.6 percent on the year and even lower in league play to rank last in the Big Sky in that category.
Ball control has been a weakness for Sacramento State as well. They are ninth in the conference in turnover margin, ranking in the bottom half in assist/turnover ratio while recording the second-fewest steals in the league.
Zach Chappell leads the Hornets in scoring, averaging 16.0 points per game in league play. He is the only Hornet in the top 20 in the league in that category, as Callum McRae is the only other player averaging double-figures.
Chappell has made 40 three-pointers on 38.1 percent shooting. He is second on the team in both categories to Austin Patterson, who has 42 makes on 38.2 percent shooting.
Callum McRae will be the biggest opponent that Montana has faced in league play. The 7-1 center is averaging 8.9 rebounds, the second-most in the Big Sky. He is joined in the top four of that category by Akol Mawein, who brings in 8.1 rebounds per game. Montana will have it's hands full with the big men that lead the best rebounding unit in the league.
Gianni Hunt has been a very good facilitator for the Hornets, averaging 4.3 assists per game to rank third in the conference.

SERIES HISTORY VS. THE HORNETS

Montana have dominated the all-time series with the Hornets, compiling a 47-11 record overall. The Hornets have picked up eight of their 11 wins in the series at home, as Montana is just 20-8 inside The Nest.
The Grizzlies have won eight of the past 10 meetings between the two schools. Sacramento State have won two out of three, however, snapping what was an eight-game winning streak for Montana in the series.
In the last 10 meetings in Sacramento, the Grizzlies have a 6-4 record.
Montana missed a free throw in the final two seconds in the last meeting between the two teams, losing 72-71 at home. Josh Bannan had 20 points and 15 rebounds in that game.

SCOUTING PORTLAND STATE (9-11, 3-4 Big Sky)

The Vikings split last weekends road trip to Weber State (84-68, L) and Idaho State (72-65, W). They lead for the final 31 minutes of the Idaho State game, going up by double-figures several times in the second half for a convincing win.
Portland State have been good inside Viking Pavilion this season, going 4-2 at home. This weekend will be their third and fourth league games at home as they've started the season on the road for five of the first seven.
Second-year head coach Jace Coburn employs a fast-paced style of basketball that forces the action upon their opponents. They are second in the league in scoring at 71.3 points per conference game, and their overall season average of 76.9 points per game is the 69^th best mark in the NCAA.
The Vikings are second in the Big Sky in both steals (7.0) and blocks (3.1) per game. They turn their opponents over more than 15 times per game and are second in the league in turnover margin at 3.43.
The defense for the Vikings is a high risk, high reward situation. While their turnover stats are impressive, the Vikings rank last in the league in three-point percentage defense and seventh in field goal percentage defense.
On the reward side, Portland State leads the league and are 9^th in the country in fast break points with 16.2 per game.
Portland State make the fourth-most threes per game (7.6) on the fourth-best percentage (36.3) in the Big Sky.
They also have a tough time on the boards, ranking last in the league in rebounds (30.0), opponent rebounds (36.0) and rebounding margin (-6.0).
The bench unit has been special for Portland State this season. They average 31.4 points off the bench, the ninth-most in the nation. They scored at least 30 in both games on the last road trip, as Coburn will go deep into his rotation.
There will be a familiar face on the court for the Vikings as former Grizzly Cameron Parker transferred to play his final collegiate season on the Park Blocks. A Portland native, Parker is now playing at his third school in a decorated collegiate career.
Parker leads the Vikings in scoring (14.7 points per game) and assists (5.7 per game). In his 127 career games, Parker has 1,158 points and 734 assists. He is one of just two active players with 1,000 points and 700 assists, and is currently 62^nd on the all-time NCAA assist list.
Jacob Eyman is ninth in the Big Sky in blocks with 0.9 per game.
Hunter Woods is the only other Viking in the top 25 in the league in scoring, averaging 11.3 points per game.

SERIES HISTORY VS. THE VIKINGS

Montana leads the all-time series against Portland State 42-27. The Vikings have the advantage at home, however, going 19-16 against the Grizzlies on friendly hardwood.
Montana are 6-4 in the previous 10 games against Portland State.
Since the opening of the Viking Pavilion in 2018, Portland State has had the home advantage. Montana are 2-3 inside the new arena.
The Grizzlies did sweep the season series with Portland State last year, winning 66-64 in Portland. Josh Bannan scored 22 points in both of the wins.

MONTANA'S RECENT FORM
The Grizzlies enter this road trip in need of a win. They have dropped consecutive games for the first time in league play and have lost three of the previous four. Montana lost to league-leading Eastern Washington by seven on the road before falling at home to Montana State 67-64.

PUT THE BALL IN THE BASKET
There has been a very straightforward ingredient that has determined the result of most games for Montana this season. Field goal percentage. It's a pretty logical answer, but in games where Montana has a better field-goal percentage than its opponent the Grizzlies are 9-1. In games where the Griz are outshot, they are now 0-10 following the Montana State loss.

The Grizzlies have four wins when shooting between 40-45 percent and the same amount when shooting over 50 percent. It seems to matter less what Montana does, and more about what they hold their opponent to from the floor. The Griz are 6-2 in games where they hold the other team under 40 percent from the floor, and 4-8 when they give up better than 40 percent shooting.

BATTLE OF THE BOARDS
In another category that seems obvious, Montana is a much better team when they do a good job rebounding the ball. The Grizzlies are 8-2 in games when they finish with more rebounds than their opponent and 0-7 in games where they are outrebounded. In games where the teams tie in rebounds, Montana is 1-2.

This will be put to the test this weekend against Sacramento State, a team that leads the Big Sky with nearly 39 rebounds per game.

SHARING THE ROCK
The final key for Montana has been to share the ball. Similar to rebounds and shooting percentage, Montana's record is lopsided in games where they have more assists than their opponent (7-3) as opposed to games when their opponent finishes with more assists (2-8).

Look out for this stat to come into play against a Portland State team that forces a lot of turnovers and rank third in the league in assists.

When you combine the three above factors of efficient shooting, physical rebounding and good distribution of the ball, it usually spells success for Montana. DeCuire has often talked of the flow that his team get into when playing well, which stems from missed shots and defensive rebounds that turn into transition offense. This creates more assist opportunities and easier shots for the Griz on the other end.

HOLDING THE LEAD
Montana has been one of the better teams in the Big Sky by a lot of statistical measurements, but have had a hard time closing out wins. The Grizzlies are 3-5 in Big Sky play despite leading for a majority of the minutes in six out of eight games. They have been ahead at halftime of six of the eight games.

The Grizzlies have led for over 178 minutes in conference play and only trailed for 108. In the five conference losses, the Grizzlies have been ahead in the final minute in three and tied or in the lead in the final five minutes of the other two.

THE ANALYTICS ARE POSITIVE
Montana's close-game losses have made for a frustrating start to league play. It isn't a stretch to say that with a few different bounces Montana could be toward the top of the conference standings, but that's why you play the games.

Still, the Griz believe they are much better than their record indicates. The advanced stats would agree. Montana is still ranked third in the Big Sky in the Pomeroy College Basketball Rankings at 175^th overall. The same can be said of the NCAA NET Rankings, where Montana is again third in the league at 181^st overall.

THE FREE THROW CONUNDRUM
Montana has broken the school record for team free throw percentage in back-to-back seasons. There is plenty of basketball to be played, but the Grizzlies are in a good position to make yet another run at the record. The team is shooting 78.2 percent from the line this year. It is the 11th best percentage in D-1 basketball.

They shot 78.5 in 2021-22, and 78.2 in 2020-21.

The top six scorers for Montana are all over 75 percent from the line, including the entire starting five. Martin Jr. leads at 86.7 percent, followed by Thomas (85.0), Moody (84.5), Vazquez (84.0), Bannan (78.3) and Whitney (77.6).

But somehow Montana has only outshot its opponent in 12 of the 20 games. The Grizzlies opponents are converting at an astonishing 77.8 percent clip. In league play it's even better at 80.8 percent. It makes Montana's free throw defense – an uncontrollable figure – 360^th in the country out of 363 teams.

On top of that, Montana have allowed 172 free throw attempts, 11 more than the next closest team in the Big Sky. The combination of high attempts and high percentage means Montana have given up 139 points from the line in league games while scoring only 101. The Grizzlies are down 84 total points at the free throw line this season.

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Players Mentioned

Josh Bannan

Cameron Parker

University of Montana Athletics