Montana takes winning streak on the road

MONTANA at IDAHO STATE
Thursday, Feb. 9 / 7:00 p.m. / Pocatello, Idaho
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MONTANA at WEBER STATE
Thursday, Feb. 11 / 7:00 p.m. / Ogden, Utah
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The Montana Grizzlies begin the final stretch of the season on the road this week, and do it riding the momentum of their best run of play so far in 2022-23. Idaho State and Weber State await Montana this week as the Grizzlies look to extend their three-game winning streak and get above .500 for the first time in league play.

Head coach Travis DeCuire has said all season that the most important thing for his team is to get hot in February and close the season strong. So far, Montana is making a good run at that. The Grizzlies are undefeated in February following some dramatic wins in Missoula last weekend.

The Grizzlies defeated Northern Colorado on Thursday, leading for over 39 minutes but surviving a last-second shot to tie the game from the Bears. Saturday night ramped up the tension, as Josh Vazquez and Brandon Whitney each made shots in the final minute to help Montana to a one-point win against Northern Arizona.

Through it all, Aanen Moody shined. The redshirt-senior scored 26 points in both games over the weekend, shooting 62.5 percent from the three-point line in a performance that thrilled the crowds inside Dahlberg Arena. He scored at least 13 points in three individual halves over the weekend, and had a 49 second stretch with nine points that summarized his weekend well. He was the hot hand, and Montana continued to feed him.

The three-game winning streak is important to get Montana back in the top half of the conference, but finding a way to win close games may have been the most important aspect of the weekend for the Griz. Before last weekend, Montana had an 0-4 record in games decided by four points or fewer. There had been a feeling that the luck may never turn. No longer.

The Griz built confidence in knowing they can get it done in close games, and now see a great opportunity ahead of them on the road. They defeated Idaho State by 29 in the first meeting, and lost one of those close games against Weber State despite leading for a majority of the game.

SCOUTING IDAHO STATE (9-15, 6-5 Big Sky)

The Bengals have been perhaps the biggest surprise in the Big Sky this season, currently sitting in fourth place after being picked to finish last by both the coaches and media in the league's preseason polls.
Idaho State are coming off a win against Northern Arizona on Monday. They defeated the Lumberjacks 75-70 in Pocatello.
At home, Idaho State have lost their previous two conference games. Portland State won 72-65 on Jan. 21 while Weber State won a 72-71 double-overtime thriller on Feb. 4.
Close games have been par for the course for the Bengals, as their previous three games have all been decided by five or fewer points with two of them going into overtime. They won the Battle of the Domes against Idaho in overtime while losing the Weber State game.
Montana defeated Idaho State 84-55 in Missoula earlier this season. The Grizzlies led by 14 at the half and extended it in the final 20 minutes, holding the Bengals to a season-low 55 points in their second-worst loss (29 points) all year.
The offense has carried Idaho State through the conference season so far as they are second in the league in scoring at 72.5 points per game. They have the fourth-best shooting percentage and make 7.5 threes per game.
Balance has been the key for the Bengal offense, as they don't have a single player averaging more than 13 points per game this year across all games. In league play, Brayden Parker has upped his scoring to 15.0 points to rank 13^th in the league.
Parker also leads the Bengals in rebounding at 5.5 per game, but once again does not crack the top 10 in the league. They have 10 players averaging at least eight minute per game in league games, and nine players between 5.5 and 1.5 rebounds per game. Overall, the Bengals are ninth in rebounding and eighth in rebound margin in the Big Sky.
Maleek Arington averages 26 minutes off the bench in league play, scoring 7.5 points while leading the team defensively with 16 steals. He also has five blocks and 2.2 assists per game.

SERIES HISTORY VS. IDAHO STATE

The series between the Griz and Bengals has been extremely one-sided in recent years. Montana won earlier this season to make it 23 out of the last 24 against Idaho State.
Last season, the Bengals were able to win in Reed Gym to end a 22-game winning streak for Montana in the series. It was the first loss since 2010 for the Grizzlies.
Overall, Montana leads the series 111-45. The Grizzlies have a winning record on the road against the Bengals, going 40-30 in Pocatello.

SCOUTING WEBER STATE (12-12, 7-4 Big Sky)

Montana and Weber State have combined for nine of the past 14 Big Sky Championships. The two teams have been the litmus test for the rest of the Big Sky not only over the past decade, but since the conference's inception. They have combined for 21 Big Sky Conference tournament titles, Montana leading the way with 11.
Long-time Weber State head coach Randy Rahe retired over the offseason, leaving after a stellar 16-year career in Ogden. Rahe is the Big Sky's all-time leader in conference wins with 198. Travis DeCuire is currently third with 109 wins.
On Monday, the Wildcats suffered an 88-54 defeat to Northern Colorado on Monday night in a game featured on ESPNU. It was the largest loss for the Wildcats this season. They had won four of the previous five games with only a four-point road loss to Eastern Washington in that span.
Weber State's defense has been the key to success this season. They are third in the Big Sky in scoring defense, giving up just 67.1 points per game. They trail only Montana and Montana State in that category.
The Wildcats defense records the fewest blocks and just 6.3 steals per game, but have been very good at taking opponents out of their game plans and into difficult shots. They allow opponents to shoot just 43.8 percent, the third-best defense in the league, while not giving up many rebounds (31.1, 3^rd).
Second-chance points are very hard to come by when playing Weber State. They have allowed just 6.9 offensive rebounds per game, the fifth-best mark in the entire NCAA. The Wildcats also struggle on the offensive glass, ranking 358^th out of 362 teams with just 6.4 per game.
The offense has left some to be desired, as the Wildcats are last in the Big Sky with 66.3 points per game. They also have the fewest assists (10.4) and the worst assist/turnover ratio at 0.80.
The Wildcats are second in the Big Sky and 14^th in the NCAA in free throw percentage at 76.8, trailing only Montana.
Dillon Jones is putting together a Big Sky MVP-caliber season so far in Ogden, averaging 15.5 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. He also averages 3.7 assists per game, ranking in the top eight in the league in every category.
Jones leads all of the NCAA in defensive rebounds per game at 10.0. He also makes the top 10 in rebounds per game (10.8) and is tied for third in the country with 14 double-doubles.
Steven Verplancken is second on the team with 12.6 points per game, and has made a team-high 46 three-pointers.

SERIES HISTORY VS. THE WILDCATS

These two teams are fierce rivals in basketball and have long been the standard that the rest of the conference is compared with when measuring success. It has been very even and competitive in recent years after Montana won five straight from 2017-2020. In the last 10 meetings, the teams are 5-5 against each other.
Weber State lead the all-time series 75-64, including a three-game winning streak. They defeated Montana earlier this season in dramatic fashion. The Griz led 57-56 with four seconds to play and the ball, but a turnover on an inbounds pass led to a game-winning three-pointer from Verplancken.

MOODY SEEKS A MILESTONE
Last weekend in Missoula was the Aanen Moody show. The senior transfer scored 26 points in both of Montana's wins against Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona, becoming the Grizzlies leading scorer on the season in the process at 15.4 points per game.

It also has him on the cusp of a major career milestone. Moody enters this weekend with 987 career points across his three schools. He already has more this season than any other individual year of his career with 307, but will look to stay hot and reach the 1,000-point mark on Thursday in Pocatello.

He would join teammate Josh Bannan as the second player on the Griz roster with 1,000 points.

MONTANA'S RECENT FORM
The Grizzlies are currently in the midst of the best stretch of the season, winning three straight Big Sky games to get back to .500 both overall and in league play. It is just the second time this year that Montana have won three consecutive, and they have a chance for the longest streak of the season on Thursday in Pocatello.

Aanen Moody has been a big reason for that, averaging 26 points per game over the weekend sweep of Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona. Josh Bannan has been special over the three-game streak as well, averaging a near double-double with 15.3 points and 9.3 rebounds. He also averages nearly six assists per game during the run.

WHAT'S THE MATTER WITH THURSDAY?
The Big Sky schedule is set up to play most games in sets of two. There are a few exceptions, but most games take place on Thursday and Saturday. The day of the week typically doesn't change much, but Thursdays seem to have a particular sense of bad luck attached to them for Grizzly basketball.

They finally picked up their first Thursday night win against Northern Colorado last week. Montana are now 1-4 in Big Sky play in Thursday night games.

BOUNCEBACK SATURDAYS
While Thursday has not been kind to Montana, the good news is they have had the answer every single time. The Grizzlies are 4-0 on Saturday games following a Thursday night loss, winning by an average margin of over 10 points per game. Going back into the non-conference, Montana are 7-2 this year in contests played on Saturdays.

There are two outliers in conference play, a Monday night loss to Eastern Washington and a Saturday loss to Montana State that was the only game of the week for the Grizzlies.

FRESH START IN FEBRUARY
January proved to be a struggle for Montana, finishing the month with a 3-5 record. They fell to three games below .500 overall at one point, but have made a charge back in February. They are now 2-0, nearly matching their win total from January with six games still to play.

PUT THE BALL IN THE BASKET
There has been a very straightforward ingredient that has determined the result of most games for Montana this season. Field goal percentage. It's a pretty logical answer, but in games where Montana has a better field-goal percentage than its opponent the Grizzlies are 11-1. In games where the Griz are outshot, they are 1-11, with the lone win coming against Northern Arizona on Saturday.

There are a couple of extremes that also signify whether Montana is likely to have success. When the Griz shoot better than 50 percent they are 5-1, but when their opponent shoots that well Montana is 0-5. Likewise, when held under 40 percent from the floor the Griz are 0-5, but 6-2 when limiting their opposition to lower than 40 percent.

BATTLE OF THE BOARDS
In another category that seems obvious, Montana is a much better team when they do a good job rebounding the ball. The Grizzlies are 9-2 in games when they finish with more rebounds than their opponent. Last weekend proved to be an outlier as the Griz beat both Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona, improving to 2-8 in games where they are outrebounded. In games where the teams tie in rebounds, Montana is 1-2.

SHARING THE ROCK
The final key for Montana has been to share the ball. Similar to rebounds and shooting percentage, Montana's record is lopsided in games where they have more assists than their opponent (10-3) as opposed to games when their opponent finishes with more assists (2-9).

When you combine the three above factors of efficient shooting, physical rebounding and good distribution of the ball, it usually spells success for Montana. DeCuire has often talked of the flow that his team get into when playing well, which stems from missed shots and defensive rebounds that turn into transition offense. This creates more assist opportunities and easier shots for the Griz on the other end.

HOLDING THE LEAD
Montana has been one of the better teams in the Big Sky by a lot of statistical measurements, but have had a hard time closing out wins. The Grizzlies are 6-6 in Big Sky play despite leading for a majority of the minutes in eight out of 12 games. They have also been ahead at halftime in nine games.

The Grizzlies have led for over 277 minutes in conference play and only trailed for 161. In the six conference losses, the Grizzlies have been ahead in the final minute in three and tied or in the lead in the final five minutes of two.

Montana won two games in dramatic fashion last weekend, improving to 2-4 in games decided by four points or fewer this season.

A TALE OF TWO HALVES
The Grizzlies have been a much better first half team this season. They are outscoring opponents 798-742 in the opening 20 minutes. In the back half, the Griz have struggled defensively, being outscored 837-882.

When trailing at the half, Montana are 1-8 this season. The lone come-from-behind win came in the non-conference against North Dakota State. When leading at the half, Montana are 10-4. The Griz won the only game that they entered halftime tied.

THE ANALYTICS ARE POSITIVE
Montana's close-game struggles have made for a frustrating start to league play. It isn't a stretch to say that with a few different bounces Montana could be toward the top of the conference standings, but that's why you play the games.

Still, the Griz believe they are much better than their record indicates. The advanced stats would agree. Montana are the third best team in the Big Sky and the 193rd ranked team overall according to the Pomeroy College Basketball Rankings.

It's similar in the NCAA NET Rankings, where Montana is again third in the Big Sky and 189th overall.

THE STORY FROM THE STRIPE
Montana has broken the school record for team free throw percentage in back-to-back seasons. There is plenty of basketball to be played, but the Grizzlies are in a good position to make yet another run at the record. The team is shooting 77.6 percent from the line this year. It is the 9th best percentage in D-1 basketball.

They shot 78.5 in 2021-22, and 78.2 in 2020-21.

The Grizzlies have four players shooting 84 percent or better this season, led by Josh Vazquez at 86.2 percent. Dischon Thomas (84.8), Aanen Moody (84.2) and Lonnell Martin Jr. (84.2) have all been stellar from the line as well.

But Montana has still somehow been outshot from the line in 10 games. The Grizzlies opponents are converting at an astonishing 77.2 percent clip. In league play it's even better at 78.9 percent. It makes Montana's free throw defense – an uncontrollable figure – 356th in the country out of 363 teams.

On top of that, Montana have allowed 94 more free throws than they have shot this season. Their opponents have shot more free throws in 18 of the 24 games this season. The combination of high attempts and high percentage means Montana have given up 165 points from the line in league games while scoring only 129. The Grizzlies are down 3.0 points per game from the free throw line.

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Players Mentioned

Josh Bannan

Lonnell Martin Jr.

Aanen Moody

Dischon Thomas

Josh Vazquez

Brandon Whitney

University of Montana Athletics